* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102020 08/17/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 29 34 38 44 49 53 57 58 58 58 58 58 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 29 34 38 44 49 53 57 58 58 58 58 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 28 31 34 38 41 43 44 42 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 17 15 14 11 5 5 4 4 3 7 11 15 17 14 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -1 -2 1 1 3 0 2 0 10 5 SHEAR DIR 38 35 42 54 47 84 50 77 94 121 96 91 133 103 103 84 86 SST (C) 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 137 140 141 141 139 140 139 139 141 142 141 140 141 142 143 143 143 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 53 51 50 53 55 54 54 49 51 49 48 46 46 42 44 45 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -24 -21 -15 -15 -18 -10 -22 -9 8 21 31 36 21 13 12 0 200 MB DIV -18 11 18 14 15 37 5 -8 -4 0 -9 -23 -40 -28 -20 -47 -29 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 -1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2111 2036 1971 1902 1821 1685 1551 1459 1381 1346 1372 1397 1435 1465 1494 1500 1481 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.0 15.0 15.1 14.9 14.3 13.4 12.5 11.3 10.4 9.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.5 136.2 136.8 137.5 138.3 139.6 141.0 142.2 143.5 144.5 145.2 145.8 146.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 9 10 13 14 15 20 8 8 11 14 13 10 12 14 16 17 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 26. 29. 31. 32. 33. 34. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. 0. 4. 9. 13. 19. 24. 28. 32. 33. 33. 33. 33. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 135.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102020 TEN 08/17/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.17 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.08 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.09 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.27 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.70 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 3.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102020 TEN 08/17/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##