* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GENEVIEVE EP122020 08/17/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 94 105 112 119 123 115 104 92 79 68 57 47 37 28 20 V (KT) LAND 75 85 94 105 112 119 123 115 104 92 79 68 57 47 37 28 20 V (KT) LGEM 75 85 95 104 110 120 120 108 97 85 67 53 42 33 27 22 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 4 3 9 4 5 4 8 12 14 15 9 18 18 19 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -2 -3 -6 -6 -3 -2 1 4 4 5 5 8 4 10 4 0 SHEAR DIR 55 96 106 161 174 222 231 107 174 152 171 173 209 187 199 203 210 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.1 27.9 26.9 26.7 25.5 23.6 23.6 22.0 21.5 21.1 20.7 20.1 POT. INT. (KT) 171 169 166 160 157 155 142 132 130 117 98 98 82 76 71 66 60 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.1 -51.5 -51.2 -50.6 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -49.8 -49.6 -49.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 7 7 8 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 78 79 77 77 75 74 70 61 57 56 57 54 53 47 44 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 22 25 27 25 30 29 28 27 26 24 21 19 16 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 26 37 45 66 70 75 61 63 49 41 46 47 59 56 21 200 MB DIV 107 129 127 124 100 102 87 61 25 13 -9 5 11 -4 17 -8 1 700-850 TADV -18 -8 -9 -2 0 -1 -5 -11 -3 -5 -2 0 0 7 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 353 344 350 350 380 378 255 227 216 271 292 332 503 590 625 572 535 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.4 18.2 19.5 20.8 22.0 23.2 24.2 25.2 26.3 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.9 105.2 106.6 107.6 108.5 110.0 111.0 112.0 113.5 114.9 116.2 117.9 120.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 12 11 9 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 38 30 29 25 16 18 8 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 17 CX,CY: -13/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 64.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -19. -24. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 3. 4. 3. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -5. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 18. 11. 3. -2. -6. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 19. 30. 37. 44. 48. 40. 29. 17. 4. -7. -18. -28. -38. -47. -55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 15.0 103.9 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.45 10.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 17.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.82 17.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.4 -33.0 to 160.6 0.78 17.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 12.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 11.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -13.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 5.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.52 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 85% is 13.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 86% is 6.8 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 83% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 76% is 12.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 62% is 14.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 57% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 33% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 85.0% 85.9% 82.8% 76.3% 62.1% 56.6% 32.8% 10.9% Logistic: 72.2% 77.6% 73.0% 65.0% 56.2% 53.2% 14.8% 0.9% Bayesian: 81.2% 87.8% 94.0% 92.0% 80.1% 52.0% 1.7% 0.0% Consensus: 79.5% 83.8% 83.3% 77.8% 66.2% 53.9% 16.4% 3.9% DTOPS: 77.0% 78.0% 77.0% 62.0% 52.0% 47.0% 17.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122020 GENEVIEVE 08/17/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##