* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LAURA AL132020 08/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 106 106 104 101 90 81 75 71 67 69 64 53 43 40 37 28 V (KT) LAND 100 106 106 90 65 39 31 28 28 28 34 28 18 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 100 107 110 109 70 40 31 28 28 28 34 36 32 30 30 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 17 25 25 19 13 17 25 40 45 59 82 84 69 49 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 0 1 4 8 4 3 3 1 -4 -14 -9 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 303 267 256 268 266 257 294 258 249 256 246 227 218 230 229 238 226 SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.9 30.6 31.5 31.0 29.6 29.7 29.5 28.8 25.8 25.1 17.2 11.8 12.9 11.7 12.1 POT. INT. (KT) 173 169 169 172 173 172 163 166 165 154 118 113 79 70 69 66 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 152 151 163 173 164 136 142 148 142 110 105 75 68 66 63 62 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.2 -49.6 -50.3 -51.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.6 -51.1 -51.4 -50.8 -48.8 -48.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.6 1.3 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.9 0.5 1.5 3.3 2.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 13 10 9 13 5 12 5 9 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 58 57 60 57 58 60 55 44 42 41 47 43 47 58 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 26 25 26 20 16 12 12 12 19 20 18 15 17 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -5 -27 -75 -70 -49 -13 22 59 96 153 158 180 157 173 189 192 200 MB DIV 40 46 35 36 33 32 24 52 27 42 40 58 68 33 22 21 1 700-850 TADV -6 2 14 25 18 21 12 36 31 18 17 1 -44 -12 -58 -60 2 LAND (KM) 301 221 122 -9 -152 -446 -627 -709 -663 -211 286 276 62 290 730 1017 1216 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 27.6 28.6 29.9 31.1 33.8 35.8 37.0 37.6 37.9 38.6 41.5 46.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.3 93.1 93.5 93.8 93.5 92.1 89.5 84.7 78.2 70.8 63.5 56.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 15 23 27 30 33 33 26 17 11 9 HEAT CONTENT 55 36 42 21 7 6 4 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 4. -0. -6. -10. -14. -19. -24. -30. -37. -43. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -11. -7. -7. -8. -9. -12. -18. -23. -27. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -5. -12. -18. -20. -21. -13. -13. -16. -20. -17. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 6. 4. 1. -9. -19. -25. -29. -33. -31. -36. -47. -57. -60. -63. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 26.5 91.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 7.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.43 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.49 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 499.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.42 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.29 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.3% 21.1% 15.7% 13.2% 11.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 22.0% 23.0% 16.9% 24.2% 10.9% 11.2% 2.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 46.8% 3.0% 1.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 32.7% 15.7% 11.4% 12.9% 7.3% 7.5% 0.9% 0.0% DTOPS: 12.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132020 LAURA 08/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132020 LAURA 08/26/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 22 27( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 3 4( 7) 0( 7) 0( 7) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 106 106 90 65 39 31 28 28 28 34 28 18 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 100 99 99 83 58 32 24 21 21 21 27 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 100 97 96 80 55 29 21 18 18 18 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 65 39 31 28 28 28 34 28 18 16 DIS DIS DIS NOW 100 91 85 82 81 55 47 44 44 44 50 44 34 32 16 16 16 IN 6HR 100 106 97 91 88 77 69 66 66 66 72 66 56 54 38 38 38 IN 12HR 100 106 106 97 91 87 79 76 76 76 82 76 66 64 48 48 48