* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISELLE EP142020 08/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 38 39 39 40 37 32 28 24 21 19 21 23 26 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 38 39 39 40 37 32 28 24 21 19 21 23 26 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 40 39 37 35 32 27 22 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 24 25 24 21 21 26 21 19 17 18 15 18 11 12 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 2 5 2 0 0 3 0 5 1 2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 87 78 72 77 72 67 73 79 95 109 123 117 112 96 87 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 27.9 26.5 26.1 25.9 26.0 26.0 26.3 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 155 154 152 151 149 149 141 127 122 119 119 119 124 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 65 67 69 73 75 78 73 66 63 60 57 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 15 16 15 18 18 19 16 14 12 10 9 7 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 69 72 70 77 71 44 33 17 29 53 55 53 37 48 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 57 68 65 74 54 66 65 22 41 15 10 4 0 -18 -26 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 -2 -3 -1 -9 -7 -11 2 2 1 0 0 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 971 924 877 839 801 685 600 493 415 390 451 501 516 588 675 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.6 18.4 19.0 20.1 21.5 22.4 22.7 22.6 22.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.2 116.0 115.7 115.5 115.2 114.5 114.0 113.7 114.2 115.1 116.1 116.6 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 7 5 3 2 2 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 22 20 18 16 13 12 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 4 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 19. 18. 18. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 3. 3. 5. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -3. -8. -12. -16. -19. -21. -19. -17. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.4 116.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.67 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 185.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.70 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.25 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142020 ISELLE 08/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##