* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 44 50 57 62 64 64 63 64 65 61 54 47 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 44 50 57 62 64 64 63 64 65 61 54 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 43 48 54 59 62 62 61 60 60 57 50 42 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 1 5 8 11 13 7 4 11 14 18 26 31 44 50 55 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 0 1 -1 -1 -5 2 4 3 6 1 0 -5 -2 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 1 59 77 61 56 87 107 187 289 278 280 268 285 271 273 274 287 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.3 27.2 26.8 26.3 26.8 26.6 26.2 26.5 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 129 128 123 118 123 120 116 119 132 134 135 134 133 126 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 128 128 124 123 118 112 115 111 107 109 119 117 115 113 112 107 104 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 68 68 70 69 67 64 64 64 60 56 54 51 40 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 15 13 14 16 16 15 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 120 117 116 116 127 100 79 80 77 72 44 24 -4 -9 -24 -6 -31 200 MB DIV 6 -5 11 21 16 36 10 8 9 36 32 28 9 -9 -13 -29 -43 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -1 0 2 2 1 6 12 12 7 20 15 -12 -13 -23 -18 LAND (KM) 906 1045 1185 1327 1468 1756 2015 2217 2282 2355 2490 2307 2134 2046 2047 2115 2221 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 17.0 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.2 21.5 23.3 25.4 27.5 29.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.8 27.1 28.4 29.7 31.0 33.6 36.2 38.3 40.0 41.5 42.8 43.2 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 12 11 9 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 12 12 2 6 7 0 2 18 14 13 13 11 5 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 587 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 20. 21. 20. 20. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 5. 1. -4. -11. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -12. -10. -10. -12. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 28. 29. 30. 26. 19. 12. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.4 25.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 17.3% 12.7% 10.0% 8.7% 11.1% 12.1% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 11.6% 6.7% 2.4% 1.3% 5.0% 9.9% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.7% 4.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 2.5% 1.1% Consensus: 3.3% 11.2% 6.8% 4.2% 3.4% 5.5% 8.2% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 44 50 57 62 64 64 63 64 65 61 54 47 46 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 41 47 54 59 61 61 60 61 62 58 51 44 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 36 42 49 54 56 56 55 56 57 53 46 39 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 33 40 45 47 47 46 47 48 44 37 30 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT