* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 42 44 49 55 58 57 55 53 53 54 49 45 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 42 44 49 55 58 57 55 53 53 54 49 45 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 42 47 52 57 58 57 55 53 49 46 42 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 6 9 11 11 10 7 7 19 26 26 32 28 41 42 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 1 0 -1 -1 -4 5 6 6 10 5 0 -5 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 77 83 59 54 69 64 120 250 272 292 287 297 295 304 303 319 339 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 27.1 26.7 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.1 27.5 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.6 27.4 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 129 126 122 117 120 120 118 115 131 134 134 133 133 127 125 126 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 124 121 117 111 113 112 109 106 119 117 113 111 110 104 103 105 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.3 -53.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 66 70 68 68 65 69 68 63 59 54 46 34 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 17 17 17 17 15 14 13 14 16 15 15 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 114 110 113 123 123 96 78 61 60 26 -25 -59 -63 -47 -10 -8 -26 200 MB DIV 0 6 7 4 25 -1 -6 -18 24 17 45 9 1 -20 -41 -43 -68 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 1 0 12 20 20 23 21 1 -5 -10 -19 -6 LAND (KM) 1059 1199 1339 1482 1626 1895 2117 2280 2397 2540 2310 2148 2103 2068 2051 2090 2177 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.5 17.9 18.9 19.9 21.3 23.2 25.4 27.7 29.3 30.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.2 28.5 29.8 31.1 32.4 35.0 37.3 39.0 40.6 41.8 42.5 42.4 41.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 12 11 12 12 12 10 6 5 5 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 11 11 11 2 5 7 2 0 23 13 12 15 12 8 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. 2. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -14. -13. -11. -13. -13. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 14. 20. 23. 22. 20. 18. 18. 19. 14. 10. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.7 27.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 175.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.51 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 19.0% 14.1% 11.5% 10.1% 11.9% 11.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.9% 16.3% 10.7% 5.6% 3.2% 11.9% 11.8% 9.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 3.9% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% Consensus: 4.0% 13.1% 8.6% 5.8% 4.5% 8.1% 8.0% 3.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 42 44 49 55 58 57 55 53 53 54 49 45 45 46 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 46 52 55 54 52 50 50 51 46 42 42 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 46 49 48 46 44 44 45 40 36 36 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 38 41 40 38 36 36 37 32 28 28 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT