* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 50 49 44 42 40 40 33 29 26 27 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 50 49 44 42 40 40 33 29 26 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 43 46 50 51 51 48 45 41 37 33 29 25 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 13 13 11 8 11 17 27 36 40 39 40 36 30 29 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 5 0 -5 -4 0 2 7 3 1 0 -5 1 0 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 71 68 76 76 86 163 262 266 287 285 301 296 303 327 360 10 349 SST (C) 26.8 26.4 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.5 26.3 27.3 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 123 119 115 114 113 112 119 117 128 133 132 132 131 132 125 127 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 112 108 106 106 104 109 108 115 116 112 110 109 111 104 108 115 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 66 67 65 62 61 64 62 60 58 55 51 50 46 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 17 16 15 14 13 13 11 11 12 13 11 9 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 120 120 115 99 101 65 54 44 10 -33 -76 -78 -93 -66 -68 -91 -104 200 MB DIV -7 12 8 -1 -10 10 -16 8 12 11 -2 -13 -30 -42 -67 -25 -5 700-850 TADV 1 -1 1 1 -2 6 12 18 19 27 25 2 -1 -6 -9 -19 -13 LAND (KM) 1472 1605 1738 1842 1943 2145 2320 2364 2516 2342 2206 2114 2058 2045 2090 2201 2355 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.9 18.3 18.7 19.1 20.2 21.5 23.1 25.4 27.3 28.6 29.6 30.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.0 32.2 33.4 34.4 35.5 37.6 39.4 41.0 42.3 42.8 42.8 42.5 42.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 8 6 5 4 6 4 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 11 4 1 1 1 2 2 1 20 16 11 12 15 14 6 6 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. -1. -7. -12. -17. -22. -25. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -14. -14. -14. -13. -16. -18. -20. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 11. 13. 15. 14. 9. 7. 5. 5. -2. -6. -9. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.5 31.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.77 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 181.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 18.3% 13.6% 10.6% 9.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.9% 18.8% 11.4% 4.0% 2.6% 18.2% 19.2% 5.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 7.7% 2.0% 0.4% 0.1% 1.9% 1.3% 0.1% Consensus: 6.8% 15.0% 9.0% 5.0% 3.9% 6.7% 6.8% 1.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 41 42 46 48 50 49 44 42 40 40 33 29 26 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 42 44 46 45 40 38 36 36 29 25 22 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 37 39 41 40 35 33 31 31 24 20 17 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 32 34 33 28 26 24 24 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT