* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RENE AL182020 09/11/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 41 42 44 45 43 43 45 44 46 48 48 48 50 53 V (KT) LAND 40 40 40 41 42 44 45 43 43 45 44 46 48 48 48 50 53 V (KT) LGEM 40 39 40 41 42 46 47 46 44 42 39 38 38 40 43 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 2 5 12 23 26 30 21 18 10 8 9 10 10 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 -1 -2 0 2 5 4 8 5 5 0 1 0 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 82 24 70 256 308 313 303 301 301 296 321 19 26 63 15 353 315 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 26.5 26.2 26.0 26.8 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 117 115 119 116 114 123 129 129 131 129 129 133 138 139 139 140 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 107 110 106 105 112 115 112 111 107 108 114 119 117 116 119 118 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -53.6 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 -0.8 -0.9 -0.9 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 60 56 54 53 52 52 56 59 61 53 49 42 39 38 40 43 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 10 12 10 10 9 9 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 56 52 42 18 -15 -35 -86 -87 -81 -102 -95 -100 -92 -84 -48 -27 200 MB DIV -4 -15 -12 -13 -21 2 -6 11 -4 -17 -36 -9 -15 0 -4 13 0 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 7 2 -1 10 8 19 7 1 -5 -5 -3 -3 0 1 LAND (KM) 2196 2215 2181 2162 2149 2199 2203 2150 2138 2129 2111 2013 1870 1791 1778 1815 1712 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 23.0 24.6 25.9 27.0 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 39.1 40.1 41.1 42.0 44.0 45.5 46.5 47.1 47.4 47.6 48.7 50.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 12 9 7 4 1 3 7 7 4 3 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 9 0 2 0 0 6 17 16 16 15 14 16 26 27 26 24 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -11. -10. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -15. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 3. 3. 5. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.5 38.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.95 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.78 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 288.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.35 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 15.4% 11.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 11.9% 8.3% 1.3% 0.5% 2.7% 2.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 9.2% 6.7% 3.5% 0.2% 0.9% 4.7% 0.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182020 RENE 09/11/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182020 RENE 09/11/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 40 41 42 44 45 43 43 45 44 46 48 48 48 50 53 18HR AGO 40 39 39 40 41 43 44 42 42 44 43 45 47 47 47 49 52 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 38 40 41 39 39 41 40 42 44 44 44 46 49 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 31 33 34 32 32 34 33 35 37 37 37 39 42 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT