* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/13/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 40 41 39 38 33 29 28 23 20 17 17 20 23 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 40 41 39 38 33 29 28 23 20 17 17 20 23 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 44 44 44 42 39 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 18 14 13 16 16 18 14 11 9 8 11 15 16 14 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 3 0 0 6 0 1 1 0 0 -4 -5 -5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 34 36 34 39 67 59 87 93 133 199 196 202 194 191 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.9 27.7 27.1 26.1 25.5 25.4 25.3 24.6 24.1 23.8 24.3 24.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 144 143 140 134 123 117 116 114 107 102 99 105 103 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 67 66 66 62 59 56 54 53 48 44 39 34 28 26 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 19 19 19 20 20 20 17 15 13 11 9 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 47 43 46 37 50 37 44 39 37 34 22 18 22 17 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 38 36 24 17 20 5 -7 -27 -8 -12 -9 -11 -16 -4 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -3 -4 -2 -5 -2 0 1 5 7 7 7 8 6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 758 773 798 832 856 914 986 1043 1084 1148 1243 1347 1473 1619 1791 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.5 18.8 19.4 19.9 20.6 21.2 21.6 21.8 21.8 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.3 115.1 115.8 116.7 117.5 119.0 120.3 121.6 122.9 124.1 125.4 126.6 127.9 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 10 8 8 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 467 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 34.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 7. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -13. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -7. -11. -12. -17. -20. -23. -23. -20. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 17.4 114.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.59 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.24 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.33 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.10 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 168.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.72 -3.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.7% 12.7% 8.3% 0.0% 13.0% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.3% 4.3% 2.8% 0.0% 4.4% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/13/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##