* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/14/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 37 35 31 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 38 37 35 31 26 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 37 35 30 24 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 16 14 15 15 11 7 11 15 22 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 8 7 5 3 7 5 4 2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 57 64 69 68 87 151 199 189 200 206 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.6 27.1 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.6 23.2 23.1 23.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 134 126 121 116 109 96 91 90 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 2 0 1 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 58 53 49 45 39 33 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 24 24 22 20 18 14 12 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 52 45 39 49 38 26 21 8 6 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 33 20 7 12 -19 -11 3 -2 -8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -5 -4 0 6 11 12 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 974 976 985 1012 1037 1039 1093 1160 1219 1285 1359 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.9 20.5 21.7 22.7 23.4 23.7 23.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.2 119.8 120.6 121.4 122.8 124.3 125.5 126.3 127.0 127.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 10 9 9 7 5 4 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -22. -20. -18. -17. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -25. -31. -38. -37. -36. -35. -33. -33. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 18.2 118.5 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.48 2.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.7 19.6 to 1.4 0.22 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.28 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.38 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 226.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.0 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 14.9% 10.2% 5.9% 0.0% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.1% 3.5% 2.0% 0.0% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/14/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##