* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP162020 09/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 47 43 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 50 47 43 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 49 46 42 38 30 24 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 13 12 12 12 15 17 19 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 2 2 3 1 0 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 136 159 179 197 205 196 205 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.4 24.9 24.4 23.7 23.0 22.9 23.1 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 117 111 106 98 90 89 92 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 50 49 45 43 42 36 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 19 18 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 50 49 46 45 20 20 15 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -23 -26 -12 -7 -2 -10 -6 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 4 3 7 7 8 8 6 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1078 1100 1129 1163 1201 1270 1392 1517 1662 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.5 22.0 22.4 22.8 23.4 23.4 22.9 22.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.4 124.2 124.9 125.6 126.7 128.0 129.1 130.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -19. -24. -25. -25. -23. -21. -19. -18. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -3. -7. -11. -21. -30. -40. -50. -53. -55. -55. -55. -55. -56. -57. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.0 122.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 40.5 to 149.3 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.36 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.09 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 407.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.61 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP162020 KARINA 09/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##