* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/23/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 46 46 45 42 42 42 37 32 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 46 46 45 42 42 42 37 32 28 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 47 46 45 42 39 35 31 27 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 5 6 8 9 8 8 13 17 19 22 26 31 34 23 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 1 4 4 8 4 6 2 1 -1 1 1 SHEAR DIR 343 356 16 334 318 315 269 226 255 256 271 273 267 262 288 310 351 SST (C) 25.5 25.4 25.6 25.6 25.4 25.5 24.6 25.0 24.2 24.7 24.5 24.6 25.1 25.4 25.3 25.7 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 118 117 119 119 117 118 109 113 105 110 108 109 114 117 115 119 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -54.2 -55.2 -55.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 53 52 46 42 37 34 32 33 29 29 26 21 22 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 20 20 20 21 20 18 15 14 11 10 9 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 18 14 23 39 47 38 37 39 32 35 41 38 24 13 -27 -44 -44 200 MB DIV -12 3 6 1 -11 -1 -7 -2 -24 -33 -13 -14 -23 -23 -10 -19 -6 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 7 7 9 7 5 -5 0 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 978 1036 1080 1125 1175 1327 1491 1690 1888 2053 1892 1643 1406 1205 1061 960 902 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.4 20.6 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.1 21.0 20.9 20.9 20.9 21.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 120.2 121.1 121.9 122.8 123.7 125.7 127.7 130.0 132.1 134.3 136.7 139.1 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -3. -3. -8. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -36. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 19.9 120.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.30 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.16 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 292.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 5.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/23/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##