* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP172020 09/24/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 34 33 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 34 33 27 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 37 35 33 29 26 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 7 9 13 18 21 24 28 33 38 36 35 34 20 26 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 1 1 0 2 3 -1 -1 -4 -3 -3 -1 1 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 304 289 252 238 242 235 258 277 287 271 267 274 285 307 3 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.6 24.6 24.2 23.7 24.1 23.9 24.5 24.5 25.0 25.5 25.6 25.9 26.0 26.1 26.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 109 105 100 104 102 109 109 113 119 119 122 122 124 129 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.3 -53.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.8 -55.0 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 6 4 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 45 41 39 35 31 32 32 31 33 33 30 34 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 17 16 14 12 11 9 7 6 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 40 32 33 32 28 22 15 13 0 -18 -25 -14 -35 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -1 0 0 -7 -22 -24 -20 -12 17 0 -22 -25 -36 -12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 10 8 6 5 1 0 -3 -2 -4 -5 -3 -2 1 1 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1247 1327 1408 1521 1635 1857 2043 1791 1533 1287 1042 839 693 619 667 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.7 21.8 21.8 21.8 21.6 21.4 21.4 21.4 21.5 21.5 21.5 21.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 125.3 126.3 127.3 128.6 129.8 132.2 134.8 137.7 140.2 142.6 145.0 147.0 148.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 11 12 11 12 13 13 11 11 10 8 7 9 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 661 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -9. -15. -22. -25. -28. -28. -29. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -7. -13. -18. -25. -34. -41. -48. -52. -56. -58. -60. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.6 125.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.23 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.45 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.14 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.52 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.20 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.34 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172020 LOWELL 09/24/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##