* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 09/30/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 52 62 71 86 97 102 103 101 93 82 69 59 51 39 33 V (KT) LAND 40 45 52 62 71 86 97 102 103 101 93 82 69 59 51 39 33 V (KT) LGEM 40 45 51 57 65 80 94 102 102 92 77 63 51 43 38 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 7 5 7 5 7 3 4 10 14 16 22 24 37 39 45 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 3 2 1 0 2 0 -3 0 4 3 2 -3 6 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 49 55 70 100 95 49 79 179 201 227 229 250 237 246 239 236 233 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.4 26.1 25.3 25.1 24.2 24.3 24.1 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 154 154 149 148 145 138 124 115 114 104 104 102 102 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.2 -52.8 -51.9 -52.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.4 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 75 74 72 72 72 70 71 71 64 58 51 47 47 48 47 45 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 21 24 28 31 34 37 39 38 36 33 32 31 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR 50 64 70 78 90 82 92 91 80 61 52 40 44 65 79 63 61 200 MB DIV 103 110 113 111 104 71 69 58 93 58 37 0 15 7 26 16 8 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -4 -5 -5 -5 -7 -3 2 2 7 9 12 11 14 12 4 LAND (KM) 826 909 993 1025 1078 1259 1378 1487 1536 1592 1662 1750 1821 1830 1829 1781 1727 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.2 15.8 16.6 18.1 19.2 20.2 21.0 22.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.0 111.5 112.9 114.4 115.8 118.8 121.4 123.6 125.7 127.5 129.1 130.6 132.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 11 9 8 9 8 6 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 16 27 19 17 13 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 62.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 17. 15. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. -8. -14. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 16. 24. 31. 34. 32. 28. 22. 18. 16. 11. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 18. 17. 10. 3. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 22. 31. 46. 57. 62. 63. 61. 53. 42. 29. 19. 11. -1. -7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.7 110.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.70 8.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.66 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 108.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.73 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 4.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.48 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 110.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -6.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.93 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 51% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 17.1% 43.2% 35.6% 27.1% 17.5% 36.5% 51.0% 38.8% Logistic: 5.2% 23.0% 17.3% 11.7% 1.9% 17.6% 10.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 11.7% 10.0% 2.8% 0.4% 1.9% 1.5% 0.6% Consensus: 8.4% 26.0% 21.0% 13.8% 6.6% 18.6% 20.8% 14.8% DTOPS: 9.0% 40.0% 29.0% 15.0% 8.0% 26.0% 34.0% 21.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 09/30/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##