* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 74 83 91 99 110 113 109 99 83 75 61 48 35 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 74 83 91 99 110 113 109 99 83 75 61 48 35 24 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 73 81 88 93 102 106 103 92 78 68 56 45 34 26 19 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 12 11 11 6 1 6 12 20 21 33 37 44 47 47 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 3 1 -2 -2 0 2 1 3 5 9 2 -3 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 90 83 50 52 65 78 94 260 265 282 250 249 232 232 230 238 237 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.1 26.7 26.1 25.8 25.0 24.8 24.7 24.5 24.0 23.7 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 147 148 147 148 146 130 124 121 112 109 108 107 102 99 96 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -52.4 -51.7 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 71 69 69 71 70 61 55 48 41 41 45 42 39 39 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 28 30 31 34 36 38 40 40 36 36 34 31 27 24 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 93 100 88 89 99 101 96 95 82 74 66 48 45 37 12 18 32 200 MB DIV 98 99 82 82 82 21 31 10 19 -8 27 12 0 -15 -17 -14 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -8 -9 -7 -5 0 2 2 -1 12 19 14 4 -3 -5 -11 LAND (KM) 1125 1202 1292 1352 1406 1515 1604 1658 1732 1812 1889 1926 1949 1894 1771 1644 1437 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.6 15.0 15.3 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.8 21.6 22.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.8 117.2 118.6 119.9 121.2 123.5 125.6 127.5 129.1 130.6 132.0 133.3 134.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 9 8 8 8 7 6 9 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 12 15 20 17 14 10 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 431 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 68.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 5. 3. 2. -2. -5. -10. -16. -21. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 13. 19. 20. 15. 16. 12. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 9. 13. 20. 19. 11. 3. -2. -7. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 26. 34. 45. 48. 44. 34. 18. 10. -4. -17. -30. -41. -54. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 115.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.39 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.46 5.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 88.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.63 7.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 8.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.90 6.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 223.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -6.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.71 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 55% is 4.4 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 37.3% 54.9% 40.3% 34.6% 25.4% 26.1% 21.8% 10.0% Logistic: 38.7% 56.6% 34.9% 33.5% 16.1% 27.2% 8.7% 1.2% Bayesian: 28.0% 29.8% 24.3% 19.3% 2.2% 10.0% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 34.6% 47.1% 33.2% 29.2% 14.6% 21.1% 10.4% 3.7% DTOPS: 66.0% 86.0% 84.0% 66.0% 53.0% 67.0% 59.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##