* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP182020 10/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 103 92 81 72 55 43 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 103 92 81 72 55 43 32 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 102 92 82 73 59 48 37 29 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 22 26 24 30 33 37 44 46 38 40 44 33 17 40 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 0 2 0 0 -3 -1 5 8 0 SHEAR DIR 248 243 248 254 254 249 253 259 248 247 246 239 240 247 337 352 308 SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.3 24.8 24.8 24.9 23.8 24.2 24.1 23.9 24.0 24.1 24.1 24.1 23.8 23.8 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 123 121 115 109 109 111 99 103 102 99 99 101 102 104 102 101 95 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -52.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.3 -53.6 -53.5 -52.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 4 3 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 58 54 51 50 49 42 40 38 38 35 29 26 32 29 36 37 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 32 33 33 30 29 26 22 19 20 16 13 11 10 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 64 57 54 47 58 49 33 31 7 -2 0 0 10 28 -12 21 -23 200 MB DIV 42 45 21 13 19 1 -10 0 6 7 -2 3 13 -28 -33 -16 -49 700-850 TADV 0 6 5 1 10 11 4 8 3 2 0 0 -1 -6 -10 -22 -52 LAND (KM) 1589 1598 1610 1626 1644 1736 1814 1837 1876 1902 1909 1902 1901 1785 1532 1364 1264 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.3 19.8 20.2 20.5 21.1 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.5 23.9 24.4 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 127.1 127.7 128.2 128.7 129.1 130.5 131.8 133.0 134.3 135.2 135.7 136.1 136.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 5 6 7 6 7 6 4 3 4 6 11 13 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -11. -15. -23. -33. -41. -49. -56. -62. -67. -69. -71. -74. -77. -82. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -19. -20. -23. -25. -30. -35. -40. -40. -41. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -10. -18. -22. -21. -24. -26. -26. -25. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -18. -29. -38. -55. -67. -78. -91.-101.-106.-118.-127.-135.-138.-147.-153. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 18.8 127.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 5.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.32 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 815.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.36 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182020 MARIE 10/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##