* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192020 10/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 32 33 35 39 43 47 53 54 57 58 61 62 64 65 66 V (KT) LAND 30 32 32 33 35 39 43 47 53 54 57 58 61 62 64 65 66 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 42 44 47 51 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 9 6 4 6 3 1 7 4 7 2 7 4 8 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 1 4 3 3 0 -1 -2 -5 0 3 1 -2 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 305 309 320 318 319 169 148 355 39 43 32 333 345 26 101 130 110 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 159 159 158 158 157 154 154 158 158 156 152 151 150 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 67 66 62 61 59 58 53 57 59 60 65 66 67 68 63 63 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 7 7 8 7 9 7 7 6 7 7 8 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -49 -63 -57 -46 -17 -2 -6 12 16 18 10 15 31 5 2 1 200 MB DIV 55 27 36 22 34 9 5 -24 -14 -9 12 50 64 73 46 41 33 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -2 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 -7 -10 -5 -1 0 0 LAND (KM) 667 649 633 624 615 628 649 685 701 695 681 672 684 685 674 733 859 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 105.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 1 1 3 5 5 3 3 4 6 HEAT CONTENT 34 30 27 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 23 20 17 15 14 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 23. 24. 27. 28. 31. 32. 34. 35. 36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.5 105.3 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NINETEEN 10/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.9 40.5 to 149.3 0.82 7.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 19.6 to 1.4 0.59 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.24 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 27.8% 24.5% 16.8% 0.0% 22.8% 22.4% 36.3% Logistic: 5.3% 33.3% 16.0% 9.9% 3.4% 15.0% 6.3% 13.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 5.6% 21.5% 13.6% 8.9% 1.1% 12.7% 9.7% 16.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NINETEEN 10/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##