* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 118 119 118 118 116 114 109 100 88 73 61 50 50 50 50 48 V (KT) LAND 115 118 102 97 97 95 94 88 79 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 106 98 100 102 102 93 80 46 33 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 11 8 7 9 14 24 25 32 31 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 2 3 4 2 8 6 8 0 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 89 92 94 108 137 193 215 256 248 253 245 262 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.8 28.7 27.8 25.1 24.7 24.0 24.1 23.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 173 168 159 160 156 148 146 134 107 103 98 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 173 165 153 152 145 134 129 119 95 91 86 86 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -50.8 -51.0 -49.9 -49.8 -49.4 -49.5 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.9 1.8 1.7 1.2 1.5 1.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 6 5 6 6 3 6 4 5 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 75 74 73 76 75 69 63 52 49 43 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 27 28 27 29 31 34 35 34 32 25 21 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 96 73 66 53 26 28 16 22 41 51 52 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 77 67 50 61 48 31 43 31 44 61 40 12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -3 -1 6 2 12 15 17 12 1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 289 138 -31 25 125 323 458 321 40 -147 -315 -440 -616 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.2 20.2 21.1 21.7 22.3 23.6 25.1 26.7 29.2 31.4 33.2 34.7 36.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.5 85.8 87.2 88.5 89.8 91.7 92.7 92.9 92.2 91.2 89.9 88.1 85.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 13 12 10 8 11 12 11 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 137 105 45 53 32 43 55 17 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 14 CX,CY: -11/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 476 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 4. 4. -1. -9. -19. -29. -40. -49. -56. -62. -65. -68. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 6. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 9. 5. -4. -11. -19. -19. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -6. -15. -27. -42. -54. -65. -65. -65. -65. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 19.2 84.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 14.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 74.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 6.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 3.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.14 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 36.3% 44.4% 37.0% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 25.0% 20.8% 13.8% 11.5% 9.6% 11.7% 4.3% 0.4% Bayesian: 26.9% 38.0% 26.8% 7.5% 1.7% 2.9% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 29.4% 34.4% 25.9% 13.3% 3.8% 4.9% 1.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 0( 31) 20( 45) 17( 54) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 0( 12) 3( 15) 18( 30) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 118 102 97 97 95 94 88 79 46 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 115 114 98 93 93 91 90 84 75 42 29 25 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 115 112 111 106 106 104 103 97 88 55 42 38 36 36 36 36 36 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 103 102 96 87 54 41 37 35 35 35 35 35 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 94 93 87 78 45 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 IN 6HR 115 118 109 103 100 99 98 92 83 50 37 33 31 31 31 31 31 IN 12HR 115 118 102 93 87 83 82 76 67 34 21 17 15 15 15 15 15