* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 31 30 29 29 31 33 35 38 38 38 38 38 40 42 45 48 V (KT) LAND 35 31 30 29 29 31 33 35 38 38 38 38 38 40 42 45 48 V (KT) LGEM 35 32 29 28 27 25 24 24 23 23 24 24 24 25 26 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 3 9 14 17 13 5 6 8 11 11 11 5 6 8 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 2 -1 -3 -4 -2 0 1 0 -1 -1 -6 -2 -2 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 233 231 166 125 135 149 157 150 149 96 140 151 169 230 287 337 35 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.2 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 150 150 151 153 153 153 151 149 146 144 144 144 141 138 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 57 56 54 54 53 57 58 55 57 58 59 57 55 52 53 51 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -11 -1 -1 2 28 38 39 38 29 30 22 27 34 37 50 55 200 MB DIV -2 -1 7 -7 -17 -9 -19 -12 19 29 72 48 31 -6 -10 2 -9 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 0 2 0 -1 -4 -5 -1 0 0 1 1 1 4 LAND (KM) 622 613 604 608 611 618 640 672 684 717 772 819 822 869 944 1020 1121 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.2 14.4 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.1 107.1 107.1 107.2 107.2 107.3 107.7 108.6 109.4 110.2 111.1 112.1 113.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 1 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 19 17 15 13 12 11 13 13 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 27. 28. 30. 31. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. 0. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 107.1 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.69 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.4 0.68 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.15 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.46 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.17 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 203.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -3.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.51 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 19.9% 12.9% 11.6% 9.4% 13.9% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.1% 4.5% 3.9% 3.2% 4.7% 4.5% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##