* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * DELTA AL262020 10/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 80 72 63 53 37 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 71 54 42 35 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 79 54 42 35 29 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 30 35 33 33 34 35 44 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 3 2 1 2 -1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 252 259 263 260 271 274 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 24.5 23.9 24.7 24.6 24.2 24.5 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 102 98 103 102 99 102 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 91 87 91 89 86 88 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.8 -50.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 4 3 6 2 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 40 35 38 39 39 37 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 29 29 27 22 18 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 14 7 47 52 -19 5 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 46 36 46 30 39 25 16 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 17 16 15 11 15 10 19 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 -14 -154 -245 -305 -419 -564 -688 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.9 31.1 32.1 33.0 34.3 35.8 37.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.6 93.1 92.7 91.9 91.2 89.5 87.5 85.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 10 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 12 CX,CY: 3/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -21. -30. -38. -44. -48. -52. -55. -59. -60. -62. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -9. -13. -17. -23. -27. -31. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. -28. -28. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -24. -35. -39. -41. -43. -43. -43. -41. -40. -38. -37. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -27. -37. -53. -72. -92.-100.-107.-110.-113.-115.-114.-115.-116.-121. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.7 93.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 33.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 745.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.16 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL262020 DELTA 10/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL262020 DELTA 10/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 71 54 42 35 29 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 72 60 53 47 46 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 90 87 86 74 67 61 60 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 32 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 67 66 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 65 64 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT