* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 29 32 38 45 50 52 54 57 59 59 58 57 58 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 29 32 38 45 50 52 54 57 59 59 58 57 58 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 16 17 15 15 10 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 1 0 -1 -1 -5 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 83 86 95 102 104 122 118 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 148 148 147 147 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.7 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 68 68 69 72 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -2 0 -2 1 7 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 21 28 50 69 86 70 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 634 632 630 619 610 586 597 608 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.2 106.5 106.8 107.1 107.3 107.4 107.8 108.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 30. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 13. 20. 25. 27. 29. 32. 34. 34. 33. 32. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.3 106.2 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 5.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.33 2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.0 -33.0 to 160.6 0.37 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 67.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.83 -4.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.60 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 18.7% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.2% 16.9% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.5% 3.1% 1.4% 0.4% 2.0% 6.9% 10.9% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.8% 9.8% 6.3% 0.5% 0.1% 5.7% 8.0% 3.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##