* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 49 51 53 55 55 55 55 56 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 41 46 49 51 53 55 55 55 55 56 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 14 15 14 14 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 88 88 95 101 109 129 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 148 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.6 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 64 67 68 72 71 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 3 -4 2 5 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 35 54 68 83 81 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 609 597 587 571 551 541 523 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.0 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 106.6 106.9 107.1 107.2 107.3 107.3 107.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 15 15 16 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 24. 28. 31. 33. 35. 37. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 21. 24. 26. 28. 30. 30. 30. 30. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.8 106.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 40.5 to 149.3 0.76 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.35 2.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.44 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.12 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.82 -4.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -1.9 0.59 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.0% 16.7% 0.0% 0.0% 15.9% 17.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.3% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.4% 6.1% 7.9% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 0.3% 7.8% 6.1% 0.2% 0.1% 5.8% 8.0% 2.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 4.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##