* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NORBERT EP192020 10/11/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 38 40 37 31 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 30 31 35 38 40 37 31 25 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 27 28 29 29 29 27 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 13 14 14 18 22 31 29 28 26 17 14 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -2 0 -1 -1 5 1 0 1 0 1 0 8 4 2 SHEAR DIR 147 174 178 195 219 218 236 225 213 204 204 203 210 216 348 7 360 SST (C) 29.4 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.6 28.9 27.4 25.9 23.2 23.0 22.1 21.6 21.1 21.1 21.0 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 163 165 166 165 160 154 139 124 95 92 83 78 73 74 73 68 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 7 6 8 5 5 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 61 61 59 59 57 54 54 55 49 42 36 31 29 31 32 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 18 21 22 21 32 3 -7 -48 -25 -33 -6 -5 20 -4 -45 -91 200 MB DIV 49 38 44 27 15 32 7 20 10 9 -7 3 -13 -2 -13 10 19 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 4 6 11 11 15 8 7 8 2 8 -20 -14 -26 LAND (KM) 415 423 432 456 467 405 357 322 371 365 499 594 641 632 685 679 551 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.2 18.4 18.7 19.4 20.5 22.3 24.2 25.9 27.1 28.4 29.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.7 109.1 109.5 110.0 111.1 112.3 113.9 116.0 118.0 120.0 121.8 123.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 5 5 6 7 10 13 13 11 10 11 12 12 13 13 15 HEAT CONTENT 18 23 25 26 25 22 14 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 408 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 12. 19. 24. 27. 29. 29. 27. 24. 22. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -5. -12. -17. -20. -21. -20. -20. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 6. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -23. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 108.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192020 NORBERT 10/11/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 138.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.90 8.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 19.6 to 1.4 0.44 3.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.35 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.20 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -1.9 0.80 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 28.2% 23.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.8% 20.0% 0.0% Logistic: 13.1% 21.3% 15.1% 7.2% 3.4% 3.3% 0.4% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 18.0% 13.1% 2.4% 1.2% 8.1% 6.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192020 NORBERT 10/11/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##