ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021 400 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021 The area of low pressure that the National Hurricane Center has been monitoring the past few days well offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico has continued to become better organized today and, thus, has now been upgraded to tropical depression status -- the second depression of the 2021 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on an ASCAT-A scatterometer pass at 1442Z that showed several 30-32 kt surface wind vectors located northwest through north-northeast of the center. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates at 1800Z were 30 kt from TAFB and 35 kt from SAB, respectively, a further indication that the cyclone is just below tropical storm strength. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 300/08 kt. Although recent hi-resolution visible satellite imagery indicates that the depression has developed a tight, inner-core low-level vortex during the past few hours, this feature has no continuity. Thus, there is uncertainty in both the direction and speed of the cyclone at this time. However, the global and regional models show a general west-northwestward motion between 8-12 kt around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge continuing for the next 3-5 days. The NHC official track forecast follows that scenario, and lies between the HCCA corrected consensus model to the left of the forecast track and the TVCE simple consensus model on the right. The overall environment appears to be conducive for strengthening during the next 72 h or so based on SSTs of 29.0-29.5 deg C, mid-level humidity values of 70-75 percent, and low deep-layer vertical wind shear of 5-10 kt. The only fly-in-the- ointment is that both the GFS and ECMWF models show the instability decreasing to about half its current value by 48 hours. As a result, the global and regional models, and the SHIPS-LGEM model show the cyclone peaking at about 45 kt in 36-48 h, followed by gradual weakening thereafter. In contrast, the SHIPS dynamical-statistical model intensifies the cyclone to about 55 kt in 48-72 h, then followed by gradual weakening; the HCCA consensus model is similar to the SHIPS (DSHP) forecast. Given the aforementioned favorable environmental parameters, the official intensity forecast is a based on a blend of the HCCA and Decay-SHIPS intensity models, and lies a little above the IVCN intensity consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 11.3N 103.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 11.9N 105.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 12.8N 107.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 13.5N 109.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 14.6N 111.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 15.0N 112.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 15.4N 113.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 16.0N 114.7W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart NNNN