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Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
1000 PM CDT Sun May 30 2021
 
The satellite presentation of the depression is gradually improving 
as there has been an increase in convective banding over the 
northwestern portion of the circulation.  Recent microwave data 
and late afternoon visible satellite imagery suggest that there is 
still some displacement of the low- mid-level centers, with the 
low-level center located just southeast of the main convective 
mass. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB remained 2.0 
and 2.5, respectively at 00Z, and the initial intensity is held 
at 30 kt for this advisory.  Overnight ASCAT data should be helpful 
in determining the intensity and size of the cyclone's wind field. 

The initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, but appears to be a 
little faster than before or 295/10 kt. The global models show a 
general west-northwestward motion during the next couple of days to 
the south of a mid-level ridge.  After that time, a cut-off low 
that develops near the central portion of the Baja peninsula is 
forecast to weaken the ridge causing the tropical cyclone to slow 
down.  The updated NHC forecast is similar to the previous 
advisory, except it indicates a slower forward motion during the 
latter portion of the period.  It should be noted that the GFS 
takes a stronger cyclone more poleward into the weakness in the 
ridge, but the NHC forecast remains close to the TVCE, GFEX, and 
HCCA model consensus aids.  Given the more than 250 n mi spread 
between the ECMWF and GFS models by day 5, the latter portion 
of the track forecast is of lower confidence than normal.

The depression is located over warm waters and in a very low shear 
environment.  These conditions, along with a moist atmosphere, 
favor strengthening during the next couple of days.  If the 
low- and mid-level centers become co-located, a faster rate of  
strengthening could occur in the short term, and the NHC intensity 
forecast is slightly higher at 24 and 36 hours than before. Given 
the very low shear conditions expected, it would not be too 
surprising to see the cyclone intensify a little more than forecast 
if the inner-core structure improves overnight. After 48 hours, 
moderate southwesterly shear and gradually decreasing SSTs 
should result in gradual weakening later in the period. The 
updated NHC intensity forecast is best agreement with the higher 
GFS-based SHIPS guidance and not far from the various consensus 
aids.  
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  31/0300Z 11.8N 105.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  31/1200Z 12.3N 106.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 13.1N 108.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  01/1200Z 13.8N 109.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  02/0000Z 14.3N 110.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 60H  02/1200Z 14.6N 111.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  03/0000Z 14.8N 112.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  04/0000Z 15.2N 113.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  05/0000Z 15.7N 115.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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