ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Depression Two-E Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022021 300 AM MDT Mon May 31 2021 Despite its reasonably good satellite presentation, overnight satellite-derived wind data indicate that Two-E remains a tropical depression. Multiple ASCAT passes show Ten-E has a broad circulation with a low-level center that remains displaced southeast of the main region of deep convection. Although recent satellite imagery does show a new convective burst occurring near the estimated center position, the cyclone's lack of improved vertical structure combined with scatterometer winds near 25 kt suggest it has yet to strengthen. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 30 kt, which is consistent with the T2.0/30 kt subjective Dvorak classification received from TAFB. The estimated motion, 290/12 kt, is again slightly faster than the previous advisory. The guidance indicates the depression should maintain a west-northwestward heading during the next couple of days as it moves around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge. The system is expected to gradually slow down as a weakness develops in the ridge, and this is when increased spread is noted in the global models. The GFS and ECMWF lie on opposite extremes of the guidance envelope beyond 72 hours, with the ECWMF showing a faster westward motion while the GFS takes the system slowly poleward. The latest NHC forecast track remains close to the corrected-consensus aid HCCA through this period of increased uncertainty. High oceanic heat content, very low vertical wind shear, and a moist mid-level environment should support strengthening during the next 24 hours or so, before increasing vertical wind shear becomes a limiting factor. The ECMWF suggests this could occur earlier than previously forecast, which is reflected in the latest intensity guidance that trends weaker. Therefore, the NHC intensity forecast is adjusted downward from the previous advisory beyond 24 hours, but still lies on the high end of the guidance envelope and above the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids. It is noted that the HWRF and HMON depict more significant strengthening during the next 24 hours, which cannot be completely ruled out given the very favorable near-term conditions. Beyond day 3, cooler sea-surface temperatures and a drier mid-level environment should induce a steady weakening trend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 12.2N 106.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 12.9N 108.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 13.6N 109.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 14.2N 110.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 14.7N 111.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 02/1800Z 15.1N 112.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 15.3N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 15.4N 114.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0600Z 15.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Blake NNNN