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Tropical Depression Blanca Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022021
300 PM MDT Thu Jun 03 2021

Like the past two days, deep convection that had been present near 
Blanca this morning has sheared away and collapsed this afternoon, 
revealing an increasingly diffuse structure with multiple low-level 
swirls. Subjective Dvorak estimates at 1800Z were 30 kt from TAFB 
and too weak to classify by SAB. The most recent UW-CIMSS ADT 
objective estimate was a little higher at 35 kt. Unfortunately, 
Blanca was missed by all three scatterometer overpasses this 
afternoon. However, assuming little change in the wind field has 
occurred from last night, the current intensity has been held at 30 
kt for this advisory. 

Blanca's mean circulation center has resumed a slow due west motion 
at 270/3 kt, though some uncertainty exists since multiple low-level 
swirls are evident on visible satellite imagery. Now that convection 
has weakened once again, the steering currents will be dominated by 
the flow around a poleward low-level ridge. This flow is expected to 
keep Blanca on a westward heading for the remainder of its lifespan. 
The latest track forecast is largely an update from the previous 
forecast cycle and is in close agreement between the TCVE and HCCA 
consensus aids.
 
Now that convection near the center of Blanca has largely 
dissipated, the clock has been reset for its remaining lifespan as a 
tropical cyclone. While the current NHC forecast does not preclude 
the possibility that another convective burst could occur over the 
next 24 h, increasingly dry, stable air from the northwest and 
continued unfavorable southwesterly vertical wind shear should limit 
any significant convective organization near Blanca's center. The 
latest NHC intensity forecast expects Blanca to become a remnant low 
on Friday, with the remnant low likely opening up into a trough by 
the end of the weekend. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 15.5N 114.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z 15.5N 115.5W   25 KT  30 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 15.6N 117.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  05/0600Z 15.7N 118.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1800Z 15.8N 120.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  06/0600Z 15.9N 121.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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