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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 AM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021
 
Enrique remains devoid of any deep convection near its center this 
morning. The system appears to have entrained drier, more stable air 
into its core, which has suppressed all thunderstorm activity. 
Overnight scatterometer data revealed winds to 40 kt in the eastern 
semicircle, but the system has likely weakened since then given its 
lack of convection. The initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt with 
this advisory, which is consistent with an objective SATCON estimate 
and TAFB subjective Dvorak classification.

Passive microwave data and proxy visible satellite imagery show that 
the low-level center of Enrique is exposed and slightly northeast of 
previous estimates. The estimated initial motion is an uncertain 
335/7 kt. The system is expected to gradually turn toward the 
northwest and approach the southern Baja California peninsula 
tonight into Wednesday. The official NHC forecast has been adjusted 
slightly right-of-track from the previous advisory to account for 
the center relocation, and generally follows the multi-model 
consensus.   

Enrique remains in an environment with fairly low oceanic heat 
content and some drier mid-level air, and all the reliable intensity 
models suggest the cyclone will continue weakening. Therefore, the 
NHC intensity forecast shows Enrique becoming a tropical depression 
by tomorrow. However, if the system fails to generate any organized 
convection near its center soon, it could degenerate into a 
post-tropical remnant low later today or tonight.   

 
Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique are likely to produce heavy rains 
across a portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula  
during the next couple of days.  The additional rainfall over the 
mainland of Mexico will continue to pose a threat of flash flooding 
and mudslides.
 
2. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible over southern portions of 
the Baja California Peninsula beginning tonight, and a Tropical 
Storm Watch is in effect for that area.
 
3. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of 
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the 
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. 
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip 
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather 
office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/1500Z 22.5N 107.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/0000Z 23.3N 108.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/1200Z 24.2N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 25.1N 110.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 48H  01/1200Z 25.8N 111.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 60H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Beven
 
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