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Tropical Storm Enrique Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP052021
900 PM MDT Tue Jun 29 2021

After spending nearly a day mostly devoid of deep, organized 
convection, Enrique was able to re-develop a small convective burst, 
beginning just after the previous advisory. While not particularly 
well-organized, the convective depth is fairly cold, between -65 to 
-70 C, and has been persistent enough near the low-level circulation 
center that it justifies maintaining advisories at this time. The 
initial intensity remains estimated at 35 kt in accordance with the 
earlier scatterometer data when Enrique still lacked convection, 
though this estimate could be generous given the lower subjective 
satellite estimates provided by SAB and TAFB.

The cyclone continues to move to the northwest, but appears to have 
sped up a bit, with an estimated motion of 315/10 kt. This general 
heading should continue over the next 12 hours as the small storm 
continues to track further into the Gulf of California. Thereafter, 
the system is forecast to take a slight leftward bend, which could 
bring the tropical cyclone near the coast of Baja California by 24 
hours. The most recent forecast track is very similar to the 
previous advisory, with the exception of a slight leftward shift 
after 24 hours, blending the reliable HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.
 
Despite the recent small convective burst just east of Enrique's 
center, which was well anticipated by the ECMWF and HWRF, the 
cyclone is expected to spin down further, especially as its small 
circulation begins to interact with the higher terrain of Baja 
California. Enrique is expected to weaken into a tropical depression 
in the next 12 hours, with dissipation likely by 48 hours after 
moving over land.


Key Messages:
 
1. The outer rainbands of Enrique may produce heavy rains across a 
portion of western Mexico and the southern Baja Peninsula during the 
next couple days.  This rainfall over the mainland of Mexico will 
continue to pose a threat of flash flooding and mudslides.
 
2. Swells generated by Enrique will affect the southwestern coast of
Mexico, and portions of the Gulf of California and the coast of the
southern Baja California Peninsula during the next day or so.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0300Z 23.8N 109.1W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  30/1200Z 24.5N 109.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  01/0000Z 25.2N 110.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 36H  01/1200Z 25.5N 111.7W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 48H  02/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi
 
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