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Tropical Depression Guillermo Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP072021
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 20 2021
 
Aside from an isolated shower or two, the cyclone has been 
essentially devoid of deep convection for the past 12-15 hours.  A 
recent scatterometer overpass measured winds of 27 kt over the 
northern portion of the circulation, and assuming some undersampling 
by that instrument the advisory intensity remains 30 kt.

Guillermo has been moving just slightly south of due west or around 
260/15 kt.  A mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the 
system should result in a westward to west-southwestward track 
during the next couple of days.  The official forecast is just a bit 
south of the previous track and follows the latest multi-model 
consensus, TVCE, solution.
 
The cyclone is expected to traverse SSTs of 24-25 deg C during the 
next couple of days, and continue to ingest relatively dry and 
stable air as evidenced by the dense stratocumulus field ahead of 
the system.  These conditions should make it unlikely for Guillermo 
to regenerate.  Unless there is a significant redevelopment of deep 
convection near the center soon, Guillermo will be declared a 
remnant low pressure system later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0900Z 19.0N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  20/1800Z 18.6N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  21/0600Z 18.1N 128.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  21/1800Z 17.5N 131.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0600Z 16.9N 133.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  22/1800Z 16.3N 136.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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