ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP102021
300 AM MDT Mon Aug 02 2021
 
The depression has not become any better organized overnight. In
fact, the earlier cluster of deep convection that was located to
the west of the center has weakened with the center becoming
farther exposed to the northeast of a new burst of convection that 
has recently developed.  Unfortunately the tropical cyclone was 
located within the gap of the polar-orbiting ASCAT instrument 
overnight so there were no scatterometer data to help ascertain the 
depression's intensity.  Subjective Dvorak estimates from SAB and 
TAFB ranged from 30 to 35 kt, and since there has been no overall 
change in organization, the intensity is held at 30 kt for this 
advisory.
 
The depression has a short window of opportunity today in which to 
become a tropical storm, however increasing shear and cool waters 
along the forecast track should end that possibility by early 
tonight.  Weakening is expected to begin shortly thereafter 
as the system moves into aforementioned hostile environmental 
conditions, and the cyclone is predicted to become a remnant low by 
late Tuesday, and dissipate on Wednesday. The NHC intensity 
forecast is close to the intensity consensus and follows the global 
model guidance in calling for dissipation in 48-60 h. 
 
The depression is moving west-northwestward or 295/9 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning remains unchanged as the cyclone should move 
west-northwestward along the southwestern portion of a mid-level 
ridge. As the system weakens, it is likely to slow down and turn 
westward within the low-level flow around Hilda located to its 
southwest.  The NHC track prediction remains near the middle of
the guidance envelope, and little modification to the previous 
advisory was needed. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/0900Z 18.0N 113.4W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  02/1800Z 18.7N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/0600Z 19.6N 116.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  03/1800Z 20.3N 117.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  04/0600Z 20.5N 118.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
NNNN