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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
1000 PM CDT Tue Aug 10 2021
 
Linda appears to be on an intensification trend this evening. The 
low-level center, after being partially exposed to the north earlier 
today, has recently become obscured by a large convective burst. 
There is also some evidence of banding on the northwest side of the 
center as well. The most recent 0000 UTC TAFB Dvorak estimate was 
T3.0/45 kt and given the improvement in structure on satellite 
imagery, the initial intensity was set to 45 kt for this advisory.

Linda appears to be starting a turn to the west, with the latest 
motion now estimated at 285/8 kt. A more westward motion appears 
likely in the short term as a deep-layer ridge builds in to the 
north of the tropical storm. Afterwards, the guidance remains 
tightly clustered on a resumption of a west-northwest track between 
36-72 hours. The latest NHC track forecast is quite similar to the 
previous one, except for a bit more westward motion in the 
short-term. The overall track forecast remains in excellent 
agreement with the track guidance consensus, and is roughly a blend 
between the HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) and TVCE 
consensus aids.

The moderate northerly shear that has been affecting Linda today 
does not appear to be hindering the storm from intensifying 
currently. In fact, the ongoing convective burst may help to better 
align the low and mid-level centers, which could allow for a faster 
rate of intensification in the short-term. For this reason, the 
intensity forecast for the next 48 hours has been increased, with 
Linda now forecast to peak as a 90 knot hurricane in 60 hours. 
Thereafter, while vertical wind shear and mid-level moisture are 
expected to remain favorable, sea-surface temperatures will begin to 
gradually decrease. Linda will also be traversing the same location 
that the large wind field of Kevin is currently over, and Kevin's 
large 34-kt wind radii may also lower the sea-surface temperatures 
along the path of Linda. The latest NHC intensity forecast is now 
around the mean of the guidance envelope through the first 48 hours, 
but still remains lower than the reliable HCCA guidance.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/0300Z 14.3N 103.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  11/1200Z 14.3N 104.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  12/0000Z 14.5N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  12/1200Z 15.1N 107.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  13/0000Z 16.1N 108.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  13/1200Z 17.2N 110.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  14/0000Z 18.0N 112.7W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  15/0000Z 19.3N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/0000Z 19.7N 120.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart
 
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