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Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
300 PM MDT Wed Aug 11 2021
 
After the issuance of the previous advisory, Linda showed hints of 
an eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery.  That feature 
is no longer apparent, and it appears that some dry air has 
infiltrated into the circulation.  That being said, earlier 
microwave data indicated that the storm has a robust structure, and 
new convection is developing near the center.  The latest Dvorak 
T-numbers are T3.5 from TAFB and T4.0 from SAB, and as a result, 
the initial intensity is raised to 60 kt.

Linda has been losing latitude for the past 12-18 hours, and the 
initial motion is south of due west, or 260/8 kt.  The mid-level 
ridge that is steering Linda extends over northern Mexico, reaching 
as far as the Baja California peninsula.  With Linda approaching 
the western edge of the ridge, it should begin to gain latitude 
again soon and turn toward the west-northwest by 24 hours.  General 
ridging should remain in control through the 5-day forecast period, 
maintaining Linda on a west-northwestward or westward track with 
minimal changes in speed.  There were no noteworthy changes to the 
guidance on this cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is very 
close to the HCCA consensus aid and not too different from the 
previous forecast.

As mentioned earlier today, the environment ahead of Linda consists 
of a mix of positives and negatives for intensification.  
North-northeasterly shear of 15-20 kt is not expected to decrease 
much in the coming days, which could allow some dry air to continue 
penetrating into the circulation.  On the other hand, Linda's track 
will keep it over warm 28 degree Celsius waters for several days, 
and strong upper-level divergence should support deep convective 
development for another couple of days.  Therefore, steady 
strengthening is shown in the official forecast, which indicates a 
slightly higher peak intensity compared to this morning's forecast. 
An important note is that several dynamical and statistical models 
are showing the intensity peaking near or at major hurricane 
intensity in 2 to 3 days.  However, given the presence of the shear, 
I'd prefer to keep the forecast on the conservative side and only 
nudge the forecast up for now.  Future upward adjustments may 
be required if Linda strengthens more in the short term than what is 
shown in the official forecast.  Weakening should occur by days 4 
and 5 due to Linda moving over cooler waters.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  11/2100Z 13.6N 106.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  12/0600Z 13.8N 107.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  12/1800Z 14.5N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/0600Z 15.4N 110.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  13/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  14/0600Z 17.4N 115.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  14/1800Z 18.1N 117.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 96H  15/1800Z 18.7N 120.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  16/1800Z 18.9N 124.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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