ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Storm Linda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 300 AM MDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Recent proxy-visible satellite imagery indicates that the low-level center of Linda lies near the northwestern extent of the dense overcast, as its deep convection is being displaced southward by moderate northerly wind shear. Although its center was briefly partially exposed overnight, it appears that the center has recently moved a bit farther underneath the cirrus canopy. A 0318 UTC ASCAT-A pass shows several 50-kt wind vectors in the northeastern quadrant of Linda. After accounting for some known undersampling issues of the instrument at higher wind speeds, this supports maintaining the initial intensity at 60 kt for this advisory. This estimate is also consistent with a blend of the subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates received from TAFB (55 kt) and SAB (65 kt). After a brief west-southwest turn yesterday, Linda is now moving slowly west-northwestward at around 285/5 kt. This general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days as Linda moves around the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward as the steering ridge strengthens to its north. Overall, the guidance is in good agreement on the track of Linda. The official NHC track forecast is shifted a bit north of the previous one, which brings it closer to the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA. The cyclone is expected to pass near or south of Clarion Island on Friday night. The northerly wind shear that has plagued Linda for the past couple days is forecast to persist for another 24 h, then diminish slightly by this weekend. Otherwise, Linda will remain over very warm SSTs in a moist, unstable environment for the next couple days or so, which should favor at least some modest strengthening. However, the latest intensity guidance consensus is somewhat weaker than the previous cycle. Thus, the official NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted slightly downward, and it now lies near or between the normally reliable IVCN and HCCA aids. The forecast still shows Linda briefly peaking as an 85-kt hurricane in 60 h, in deference to the stronger HWRF and HMON solutions. Thereafter, gradually cooler SSTs and drier mid-tropospheric air along its track should induce a weakening trend through the rest of the period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 14.1N 107.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 14.6N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 15.7N 110.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 16.7N 112.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 14/0600Z 17.7N 114.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 15/0600Z 19.0N 118.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 16/0600Z 19.0N 122.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/0600Z 19.0N 126.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi NNNN