ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 900 AM MDT Fri Aug 13 2021 Linda's structure has continued to improve since early this morning. An eye was evident in longwave and shortwave IR imagery from GOES-17 and GOES-15 near 1200 UTC, though it has since become obscured by cold cloud tops associated with eyewall convection. An earlier AMSR overpass showed evidence of a ring of shallow to moderate convection, often associated with rapidly intensifying cyclones. Intensity estimates at 1200 UTC ranged from 77 kt to 97 kt, so the initial intensity was set at 90 kt, in closest agreement with the U-W CIMSS SATCON. It is worth noting that Linda's intensity is in a range where estimates can range greatly, so confidence in that assessment is not particularly high. Computational problems with the GFS this morning has limited the guidance available for the forecast, particularly with respect to the intensity. Therefore, despite the higher initial intensity and recent improvement in convective structure, the official intensity forecast was only modestly increased in the short term. It does not appear that wind shear will be a major inhibiting factor during the next day or two. Environmental moisture and SSTs should also be sufficient for further strengthening. The NHC forecast is a little above the model consensus and previous forecast for the next 24-36 h. After that time, Linda should move over cooler SSTs which should cause at least gradual weakening. By the end of the 5-day period, the NHC forecast is in line with the consensus and identical to the previous advisory. Only small tweaks were made to the NHC track forecast. Linda continues to move toward the west-northwest with an estimated forward speed of 11 kt. The global models unanimously forecast that a deep-layer ridge to the north of Linda will build over the weekend, causing the hurricane to turn westward, and then west-southwestward by early next week. Confidence in the track forecast is quite high due to the agreement among the track models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 111.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.6N 113.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.4N 115.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 18.8N 118.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.8N 120.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 16/0000Z 18.6N 122.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 18.2N 124.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 17.5N 128.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 18.5N 132.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky NNNN