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HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122021
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 13 2021
 
Enhanced BD-curve infrared satellite imagery shows that Linda's 
inner core has become much better organized during the past few 
hours.  The eye temperature has warmed to about 13c and the eyewall 
temperatures have cooled to -66 to -69c, and in fact, this thick 
black ring is a little more than 80 percent closed.  Based on these 
inner cloud pattern improvements, the initial intensity for this 
advisory is adjusted up to 105 kt.    
 
Linda still has a chance through early saturday to strengthen some 
more, and this is indicated in the forecast.  By Saturday night, 
Linda is expected to move over decreasing oceanic temperatures 
(25-26c) and enter a more stable and drier thermodynamic 
surrounding environment. These inhibiting contributions should 
induce a steady weakening trend through day 3.  For the remaining 
portion of the forecast, the cyclone should weaken a little more 
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24c) sea surface 
temperatures.  The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of 
the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and is just below the 
decay SHIPS model.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11 
kt. Linda is forecast to move in a west-northwestward to westward 
motion during the next couple of days.  Afterward, the large-scale 
models show a mid-tropospheric high pressure anchored over the 
southwestern united states building westward over the eastern 
pacific and to the northwest of the cyclone.  In response to the 
changing synoptic steering pattern, Linda is expected to turn 
west-southwestward by early next week.  The official track forecast 
has not changed much at all, and closely follows the better 
performing TVCN multi-model consensus.

Slight adjustments were made to Linda's wind radii based on earlier 
METOP-A and B scatterometer overpasses.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/0300Z 17.9N 113.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  14/1200Z 18.5N 115.6W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  15/0000Z 19.1N 117.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  15/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  17/0000Z 18.1N 125.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  18/0000Z 18.1N 129.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  19/0000Z 19.5N 134.1W   50 KT  60 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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