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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
200 PM PDT Sat Aug 14 2021

Linda is maintaining category 4 strength this afternoon.  The 
hurricane continues to exhibit a well-defined eye of about 15 n mi 
in diameter, with some mesoscale vortices noted within the eye on 
visible imagery.  Linda also has a fairly symmetrical convective 
cloud and upper-level outflow pattern.  The current intensity 
estimate remains at 130 kt in agreement with the latest subjective 
Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Some short-term fluctuations in intensity are still possible through 
tonight due to eyewall replacements.  Vertical shear remains weak 
over the system and the dynamical guidance indicates that it will 
remain weak throughout the forecast period.  However, the hurricane 
will be moving over gradually cooling ocean waters with some drier 
mid-tropospheric air in the environment during the next several 
days.  This should cause the powerful hurricane to begin to 
gradually weaken.  The official intensity forecast continues to 
follow the NOAA Corrected Consensus prediction. 

The direction of motion is gradually bending to the left, and the 
initial motion is 285/11 kt.  The track forecast philosophy remains 
essentially the same as in the previous advisory package.  A 
mid-tropospheric ridge is predicted by the global models to build to 
the northwest of Linda, and this should cause the system to turn 
toward the west-southwest within the next couple of days.  Later in 
the forecast period, Linda is expect to turn back to the 
west-northwest as the ridge shifts a little northward and becomes 
more zonally-oriented.  The official track forecast is very similar 
to the previous one and is also very close to the dynamical model 
consensus, TVCE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  14/2100Z 19.1N 117.0W  115 KT 130 MPH
 12H  15/0600Z 19.4N 118.7W  110 KT 125 MPH
 24H  15/1800Z 19.3N 120.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  16/0600Z 18.8N 122.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  16/1800Z 18.3N 124.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  17/0600Z 18.1N 126.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  17/1800Z 18.0N 128.2W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  18/1800Z 19.2N 132.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  19/1800Z 21.1N 136.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Pasch
 
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