ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 200 AM PDT Sun Aug 15 2021 Some obvious changes have been noted with Linda during the past few hours. Inner-core cloud top temperatures have continued to warm, particularly in the western semicircle, and banding features have appeared in the eastern part of the cyclone. Overall, the cloud pattern has quickly become asymmetric and the eyewall could be open in the western quadrant. It's been several hours since we've had a quality microwave overpass, so it's unclear whether or not Linda's undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Using a consensus of the Final T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt for this advisory. It appears that Linda is finally beginning a slow weakening trend. The hurricane will soon be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures and into more dry, stable marine layer air mass later tonight. It may already be ingesting some dry air from the west as a dry slot has become evident in the southern semicircle. These impeding environmental contributions are expected to further weaken the hurricane during the next several days. No significant changes to the previous intensity forecast were made, and the latest advisory continues to follow the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. The initial motion is estimated to be due west, or 270/10 kt. The track prediction philosophy remains unchanged as in the previous advisory. A mid-tropospheric ridge situated north of the hurricane is still forecast to build back westward to the northwest of Linda during the next 24 h, instigating a turn toward the west-southwest. By the 48-h period, Linda should to turn back toward the west and west-northwest in response to a mid-level cut-off low or trough developing west of the Baja California peninsula. The official track forecast is nudged closer to the TVCN consensus model and is basically an update of the previous NHC forecast. A 0359 UTC METOP-A scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind radii had contracted some, and adjustments were made, accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 19.3N 119.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 19.1N 120.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 18.0N 124.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.7N 125.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 17.9N 127.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 18.4N 129.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 20.2N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 22.1N 139.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN