ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1100 PM HST Mon Aug 16 2021 Linda has weakened, tonight. The eyewall has warmed during the past 6 hours, particularly in the west semicircle, and the convective ring has also decreased significantly in coverage, but still completely surrounds the 38 n mi diameter eye. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have all decreased, and a blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 80 kt for this advisory. It's worth noting that Linda appears to be losing its annular cloud pattern which now consists of spiral banding features showing up in all quadrants. As research has proven in the past, tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than at a climatological rate in the eastern Pacific. Despite currently moving over sub-26C waters, the low shear surrounding environment could still offset the negative contribution of gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures, at least for the next 12 hours. As I mentioned in the previous discussion, Linda may still have an outside chance of restrengthening some, or leveling off again, while the cyclone moves back over marginally warmer water. Beyond this short term period, Linda is forecast to move over much colder waters which should induce a faster weakening as the cyclone crosses into the central Pacific. Global models generally agree that Linda will lose organized deep convection in 4 days and become a post-tropical gale, and this is indicated in the official forecast. The initial motion estimate is 265/9 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Linda should continue moving westward for the next 12 hours or so, followed by a west-northwestward motion while the hurricane moves around the southwest periphery of a mid-tropospheric high located over the northeastern Pacific. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous one and is based primarily on the better performing TVCN and HCCA consensus guidance. A 0614 UTC METOP-B scatterometer pass indicated that Linda's wind radii had contracted in all quadrants, and adjustments were made, accordingly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 17.6N 126.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 17.7N 127.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 18.1N 129.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 18.8N 132.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 19.8N 134.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 20.7N 137.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 21.3N 140.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 22.1N 145.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0600Z 22.7N 149.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN