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Hurricane Linda Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122021
500 AM HST Tue Aug 17 2021
 
Linda has not changed much during the past several hours.  The 
system still has characteristics of an annular hurricane with a 
large circular eye (a little more than 30 n mi in diameter) and a 
ring of deep convection completely surrounding that feature.  The 
convection in the eyewall appears a little less symmetric than it 
was a few hours ago, however.  A blend of the latest Dvorak 
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the 
University of Wisconsin support nudging the intensity down to 75 kt.
 
Even though Linda is over cool 25-26 deg C waters, research has 
proven that tropical cyclones that are characterized by an annular 
cloud pattern usually weaken more slowly than the climatological 
rate in the eastern Pacific, and we expect Linda to be in that 
category during the next day or so.  Nonetheless, a combination of 
cool SSTs and drier air should induce a slow weakening trend.  The 
models suggest that an increase in southerly shear is likely toward 
the end of the forecast period, and that could assist in the storm 
becoming post-tropical by then.  The NHC intensity forecast lies 
near the high end of the guidance in the short term and then falls 
in line with the majority of the guidance from days 3-5.
 
Linda is moving nearly due westward at 265/9 kt.  The track 
forecast reasoning appears fairly straightforward.  A mid-level 
ridge is expected to remain anchored to the north of Linda, which 
should keep the storm on a westward to west-northwestward track 
during the next several days.  The models are tightly clustered, and 
only small changes were made to the previous track forecast.  Based 
on this prediction, Linda is expected to cross into the Central 
Pacific basin in 60-72 h and be located to the north or northeast of 
the Hawaiian Islands late this weekend and early next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  17/1500Z 17.5N 127.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  18/0000Z 17.8N 128.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/1200Z 18.3N 131.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  19/0000Z 19.1N 133.7W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  19/1200Z 20.1N 136.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  20/0000Z 20.8N 139.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  20/1200Z 21.3N 142.1W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  21/1200Z 22.0N 147.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H  22/1200Z 22.5N 151.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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