ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Linda Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122021 1100 PM HST Tue Aug 17 2021 This evening's satellite presentation indicates that Linda's cloud pattern hasn't changed much during the past 6 hours. The cyclone has maintained its impressive annular structure, and the cloud tops in the southern semicircle of the eyewall have cooled (-72 to -74C) a little again. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates haven't changed from the previous 6-hour classifications, and a blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 90 kt for this advisory. Gradual weakening should commence soon as the donut-shaped hurricane begins moving over sub-25C water within the next 12-24 hours. The GFS model soundings just downstream of Linda show some modest westerly shear below 250 mb that could undercut the outflow a bit, which would contribute to a more evident weakening trend. With that in mind, the official forecast calls for Linda to finally weaken to a tropical storm Thursday Night. Although oceanic temperatures begin to increase again north of the Hawaiian Islands, an increase in southwesterly shear should prevent regeneration of organized convection and, therefore, Linda is forecast to become a post-tropical gale by Friday night. The NHC intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous one and is still in best agreement with a blend of the statistical GFS SHIPS and the smart HCCA multi-model intensity guidance. The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/11 kt. There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. A well-established subtropical ridge should steer Linda in a westward to west-northwestward fashion during the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an extension of the previous one and is based primarily on a blend of the TVCN and HCCA consensus track guidance. Linda should be crossing into the Central Pacific by 48 hours, and is expected to pass to the north of the Hawaiian Islands as a post-tropical gale late in the weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 18.1N 130.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 18.5N 132.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 19.4N 135.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 20.2N 138.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 20.8N 141.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 20/1800Z 21.2N 144.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 21.6N 146.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 22/0600Z 22.5N 151.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 23/0600Z 23.3N 156.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Roberts NNNN