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Hurricane Rick Discussion Number  12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021
 
Rick's satellite presentation has improved overnight with a warm
spot occasionally evident within the central dense overcast.  An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft that provided two center
penetrations into the hurricane overnight measured peak 700-mb
flight-level winds of 96 kt, and SFMR surface winds of 85-89 kt.
Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased to
90 kt.  Dropsonde data indicate that the minimum pressure is around
977 mb.  With the center now very close to the coast of southern
Mexico, little change in strength is expected before Rick crosses
the coast within the next couple of hours.  After landfall,
rapid weakening should occur while the cyclone moves over the
rugged terrain of southern Mexico, and the circulation is likely to
dissipate within 24-36 hours, if not sooner.
 
Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that Rick is moving a little
faster just west of due north or 350/7 kt.  A low-latitude
mid-level ridge to the east of Rick should steer the cyclone
northward to north-northwestward until dissipation occurs.  This
motion will bring the center inland over southern Mexico by later
today.  The dynamical model guidance is in good agreement although
most of the model trackers lose the system after 12 hours due to
dissipation of the low-level circulation.  The updated  NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory and close to the
TCVN multi-model consensus aid.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Rick is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast
Mexico within the next couple of hours, bringing life-threatening 
storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds to a portion of the
Hurricane Warning area.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
Tropical Storm Warning areas through late today.
 
3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to spread across
the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through tonight, and
could persist through Tuesday.  This rainfall will likely produce
dangerous flash flooding and mudslides.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/0900Z 17.7N 101.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 18.7N 102.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 24H  26/0600Z 19.8N 102.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 36H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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