* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ONE EP012021 05/09/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 27 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 30 26 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 19 20 21 21 29 37 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 7 9 5 4 -1 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 211 204 216 213 213 234 252 264 263 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.7 26.5 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 146 145 143 140 133 128 126 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -54.4 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 66 63 61 56 51 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 10 10 11 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -23 -20 -20 -13 -12 -17 -16 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 98 124 128 114 60 27 49 19 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -1 4 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 690 672 652 628 608 607 659 725 822 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 15 15 14 12 6 2 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. 26. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -10. -19. -23. -27. -29. -30. -29. -30. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -7. -14. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.6 107.6 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012021 ONE 05/09/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 19.6 to 1.4 0.08 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.35 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 98.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.80 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.2 to -1.9 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012021 ONE 05/09/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##