* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012021 05/09/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 37 37 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 37 37 37 36 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 38 38 37 35 29 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 22 19 19 24 33 44 48 50 39 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 8 11 4 0 2 -2 2 -3 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 215 224 215 211 223 252 264 270 278 273 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.2 26.2 26.0 25.9 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 143 141 138 135 128 123 124 122 121 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.5 -53.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 65 67 65 67 60 55 51 44 44 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 10 9 7 6 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -22 -24 -20 -19 -25 -20 -28 -33 -37 -43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 115 110 123 75 28 49 9 10 -31 -27 -53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 0 1 0 3 3 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 675 644 617 602 591 632 686 766 818 909 1011 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.1 16.1 15.8 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.1 108.3 108.6 108.8 109.6 110.4 111.4 113.0 114.3 115.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 14 13 12 10 8 3 0 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -7. -15. -23. -30. -34. -36. -37. -37. -38. -40. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -5. -14. -23. -33. -42. -47. -48. -47. -46. -45. -46. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.9 107.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012021 ANDRES 05/09/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.08 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.0 2.2 to -1.9 0.05 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 5.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012021 ANDRES 05/09/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##