* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012021 05/09/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 35 33 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 22 18 17 22 28 38 49 43 40 32 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 11 5 1 0 0 -1 3 4 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 225 221 214 235 257 251 272 270 266 266 280 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.0 26.0 25.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 145 143 138 135 129 124 125 122 122 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.9 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 66 64 58 51 46 45 42 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -29 -29 -25 -25 -23 -24 -30 -29 -37 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 110 94 56 24 39 18 2 -3 -27 -22 -63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 0 2 0 2 2 4 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 697 684 673 661 652 688 736 787 866 945 998 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 15.8 15.7 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.4 108.7 108.9 109.2 109.4 110.1 110.9 112.1 113.4 114.8 116.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 16 12 8 4 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -8. -16. -23. -28. -32. -35. -36. -35. -36. -38. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -19. -29. -37. -44. -49. -49. -49. -47. -46. -47. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 108.4 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012021 ANDRES 05/09/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 40.5 to 149.3 0.60 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 -33.0 to 160.6 0.50 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.28 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.11 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.2 to -1.9 0.08 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.2% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012021 ANDRES 05/09/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##