* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012021 05/10/21 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 32 30 23 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 33 31 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 17 23 24 25 32 36 36 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 8 1 0 1 5 7 5 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 220 227 251 266 260 246 258 264 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.4 26.9 26.7 26.2 26.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 143 137 135 130 129 124 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 61 58 51 46 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -31 -35 -34 -33 -32 -26 -25 -31 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 54 35 53 64 -1 0 -27 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 0 1 0 0 1 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 716 715 714 715 744 822 866 933 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.2 109.5 109.8 110.0 110.6 111.6 112.9 114.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 3 4 5 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 21 21 18 12 10 6 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 704 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 15. 18. 20. 20. 20. 20. 20. 21. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -21. -24. -26. -27. -27. -27. -29. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -9. -8. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -7. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -3. -5. -12. -20. -28. -35. -37. -38. -37. -36. -34. -33. -35. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.0 108.8 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012021 ANDRES 05/10/21 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.61 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 160.6 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 119.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.17 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 4.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012021 ANDRES 05/10/21 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##