* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012021 05/10/21 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 33 31 28 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 33 31 28 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 34 32 29 26 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 21 25 28 28 29 35 38 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 -3 2 5 9 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 249 268 257 244 240 261 256 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.3 26.3 26.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 139 136 131 126 124 125 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 61 59 53 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -32 -32 -30 -32 -26 -25 -26 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 35 61 81 44 10 -6 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 2 1 1 3 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 680 669 660 665 674 738 795 850 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.8 16.0 16.0 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.0 109.2 109.4 109.7 110.1 111.0 112.0 113.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 13 10 6 2 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -15. -21. -26. -29. -32. -33. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -10. -19. -29. -39. -44. -47. -49. -49. -49. -48. -46. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.6 109.0 ** 2020 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP012021 ANDRES 05/10/21 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.55 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 19.6 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 160.6 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.35 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.29 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.2 to -1.9 0.12 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012021 ANDRES 05/10/21 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##