* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012021 05/22/21 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 42 43 43 42 47 49 51 54 55 56 56 55 52 48 46 V (KT) LAND 40 41 42 43 43 42 47 49 51 54 55 56 56 55 52 48 46 V (KT) LGEM 40 40 41 42 44 49 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 12 9 14 17 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -7 -3 -2 0 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 301 289 291 333 345 296 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.7 22.2 22.5 22.5 21.4 19.3 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 84 87 88 85 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 72 75 77 76 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.3 -56.8 -57.7 -58.2 -57.9 -58.1 -57.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.9 3.4 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 2 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 40 43 47 51 55 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 16 14 13 8 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 111 85 65 45 71 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -23 7 17 -45 -10 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 0 6 17 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1024 1004 985 949 918 928 845 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.4 34.7 34.9 35.4 35.9 37.2 39.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.0 61.3 58.0 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 5 8 11 17 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. 21. 18. 13. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 7. 9. 11. 14. 15. 16. 16. 15. 12. 8. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 34.4 62.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012021 ANA 05/22/21 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.06 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.3% 12.1% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.9% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012021 ANA 05/22/21 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012021 ANA 05/22/2021 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 41 42 43 43 42 47 49 51 54 55 56 56 55 52 48 46 18HR AGO 40 39 40 41 41 40 45 47 49 52 53 54 54 53 50 46 44 12HR AGO 40 37 36 37 37 36 41 43 45 48 49 50 50 49 46 42 40 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 29 34 36 38 41 42 43 43 42 39 35 33 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT