* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANA AL012021 05/22/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 45 46 47 48 47 47 45 42 38 34 32 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 39 39 45 46 47 48 47 47 45 42 38 34 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 37 39 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 14 8 13 15 21 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -9 -5 -3 -5 -4 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 282 318 320 314 294 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 21.6 22.3 22.3 21.3 20.9 20.4 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 81 86 87 84 84 84 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 71 75 77 75 76 78 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -57.5 -57.8 -57.9 -57.9 -57.5 -55.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 3.4 1.9 2.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 37 40 46 51 52 57 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 17 14 13 12 7 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 110 80 53 32 18 113 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -22 4 -4 -40 -24 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 6 9 2 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1053 1029 997 978 973 943 697 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.2 34.6 35.0 35.6 36.1 38.0 40.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 62.6 62.2 61.8 60.6 59.4 55.2 49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 8 11 15 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):125/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 18. 14. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. 7. 3. -1. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 34.2 62.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012021 ANA 05/22/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.11 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 10.7% 9.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.3% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL012021 ANA 05/22/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL012021 ANA 05/22/2021 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 39 39 45 46 47 48 47 47 45 42 38 34 32 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 37 37 43 44 45 46 45 45 43 40 36 32 30 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 33 39 40 41 42 41 41 39 36 32 28 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 26 32 33 34 35 34 34 32 29 25 21 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT