* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO EP022021 05/30/21 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 52 53 51 49 46 43 40 38 33 26 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 46 50 52 53 51 49 46 43 40 38 33 26 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 37 38 40 38 35 32 28 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 1 3 5 8 14 13 11 11 6 10 14 11 11 15 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 9 8 2 5 5 6 10 14 9 8 3 3 2 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 59 92 252 249 220 255 268 280 253 248 238 270 278 243 228 214 214 SST (C) 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.7 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.2 26.4 25.8 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 161 164 163 163 163 160 159 154 148 143 141 139 133 126 120 114 111 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 70 69 71 71 70 70 68 65 61 57 57 57 52 42 34 27 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 7 10 9 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 12 12 11 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -21 -22 -19 -20 -20 -29 -31 -24 -11 -5 1 0 10 15 17 6 200 MB DIV 40 64 75 95 109 102 54 93 55 53 -20 -24 -12 10 0 -2 2 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -7 -6 -4 -6 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 2 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 734 738 732 746 774 828 907 984 1003 1006 1028 1024 1002 1002 1029 1051 1010 LAT (DEG N) 11.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 103.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 12 11 9 7 5 3 2 1 3 5 6 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 42 55 48 32 35 56 34 20 15 12 12 10 8 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 31.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 24. 27. 30. 32. 33. 34. 34. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 20. 22. 23. 21. 19. 16. 13. 10. 8. 3. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.1 103.4 ** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022021 TWO 05/30/21 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.85 9.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.57 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 2.9 19.6 to 1.3 0.91 8.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.40 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.84 -6.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.38 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 0.8 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 48% is 8.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 36.8% 31.3% 24.5% 0.0% 43.9% 47.6% 46.8% Logistic: 6.0% 31.8% 20.6% 10.9% 0.6% 16.9% 5.8% 7.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 5.2% 2.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% Consensus: 7.3% 24.6% 18.0% 11.9% 0.2% 20.3% 18.2% 18.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 9.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 4.0% 4.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP022021 TWO 05/30/21 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##